广东佛山铝单板厂家（粮食大宗交易平台）

最近复习International Commodity Trade, 越学越觉得........我为什么在这个时候挑了能源大宗货物还有航运？我这是在给自己找失业吗？？？之前写了一点点金属和天然气的部分，实际上学到现在发现大宗货物可以大致分成几个类比，1.煤，油，气 2.金属 （铁矿石也算）3.粮食（外加咖啡可可糖类）

主要需要了解世界上的供需关系，还有原油，金属和粮食分别在CME,LME等等的期货交易事实上原先总是觉得Hedge是一个很难的概念，一开始连做空都想不明白（对我就是这么笨，想不明白为什么跌了还能赚钱？？！）后来发现教的就两种hedging的方法，一种是买future contracts（short,long）,一种是options（put/call的买卖）,在外汇市场还有个money market hedging。

其实说来说去，只要把hedge的理论想清楚，做题永远都是反向操作就好了但是最重要的我觉得还是对这些大宗货物的供需，以及交易单位，物理性质（蒲式耳，吨，或者是原油的API等）有一个清楚的认识和了解ummmmm至于金融部分，害，那世面上CFA，公司理财，期货衍生品啥的讲得比我好多了，相信以绝大部分人的智商都OK(我不OK，我是小垃圾）。

梳理了粮食部分的知识要点，大家慢用~最后.....夕阳行业毕业就失业又怎么了？！我就，我就喜欢不行啊！！！GrainsNon-animal foods account for 60% of dietary energy requirements around the globe and grains satisfy the largest share of this requirement as being an important source of both carbohydrate and proteins. Grains are classified in three major groups: wheat, coarse grains and rice. Soybeans are also covered together due to being an important substitute in many uses. Grains are mainly used in human consumption, animal feeding and industrial uses. While wheat is a staple part of diet in developed countries, rice is consumed as staple food in Asian countries. Coarse grains, especially corn, are used for livestock feeding and biofuel production (ethanol). Consumption of grains is strongly related with growth of world population. Rising demand due to increasing population has been compensated by increase in production yields (productivity) since 1950. However, increasing productivity levels is reaching a saturation point. Since, we know that arable lands are limited and productivity is not expected to improve at the same rate; nowadays, increasing population is an important cause of concern for grain industry (world population is expected to reach 9 billion in 2050).

SupplyMain supply determinants are the amount of arable land, the degree of mechanisation, labour, availability of irrigation, fertilisers, pesticides, quality of seed, government policy (tax, subsidies), and climate. Amount of arable land is the main constraint for agricultural products, being 11% of world land use. Therefore, grains not only compete with other grains but also compete with other crops for cultivated land because farmers continuously switch between crops depending on their relative prices. Elasticity of grain supply curve, in the short term, is very steep or vertical. Once seeds are sown, production is inflexible excluding weather factors. However, in the long run it shows more elastic curve. In developed countries, particularly in Europe and USA, the degree of mechanization is very high and producers are heavily subsidies by governments. US is the most important producer of grains.

DemandDemand mainly comes from human consumption, animal feeding, industrial uses and biofuel. While wheat is more used for human consumption, coarse grains are more used for livestock feeding. Share of grains used for food opposed to that used for animal feeding depends on consumer preference and country. Generally, in developed countries grains are more used for livestock feed and for human consumption in lower income nations. Three main demand determinants are population (growth rate of population, especially in less developed countries, seems as the biggest threat), taste (increasing meat dietary increase demand for coarse grains for animal feeding) and income (as income increases, tendency for wheat and meat increases).

Pricing Price is mainly determined by supply and demand. Since most of grains can be used as substitutes, shifts in supply and demand for one grain directly or indirectly affect other grains. Therefore, when we look at grains, we need to look at not only own-price but also cross-price. Even developments in energy sector may affect price of grains. For instance, suppose that ethanol price goes up. This will increase demand for corn so corn price goes up. Since most of corns will be sold to ethanol producers, there will be less corn for animal feeding. Then, wheat will be used more for animal feeding and wheat price will go up. In low income countries, consumers will switch to lower value staple foods and it will affect price of other grains. As it can be seen from this example, all grains are linked to each other. Not always but generally, prices of different grains move in the same direction, particularly corn and wheat prices are highly correlated. Another important point to note is that grains are the third largest dry bulk commodity transported by sea. Therefore, transport cost is a substantial part of final price.

Wheat is a staple part of the diet in all developed countries, and a desirable commodity to which many developing countries switch as their income increases. In high income countries, income elasticity for wheat is quite low. However, in low-income countries, income elasticity is quite high, can be even higher-than-unity elasticity, as wheat is treated as a luxury and they switch to lower value staple foods. The prime use of wheat is for the production of bread (hard wheat), other bakery products (soft wheat) and pasta or noodles (durum wheat). Flour mills are the main purchasers of wheat.

It is the most tolerant grain, planted in most countries. It can be grown from sea level to 3 km above sea level. It is planted twice a year. Winter wheat is planted in autumn and harvested in July. Spring wheat is planted earliest possible in spring and harvested in September. Top producers are China (autumn-sown, harvested in summer), India, USA (winter and spring wheat), Russia (mostly spring wheat) and France (red winter wheat). Top exporters are USA, EU, Australia, Canada, Argentina. Weather extremities can create considerable instability in production in some countries, such as Canada, Russia and Ukraine. Australia and Argentina are the most important producers of southern hemisphere.

Top consumers of wheat are EU, China, India, Russia, and USA respectively. The European Union area is a heavy user of wheat - in fact higher than the US on a per capita basis - and has shown a relative stability over the years. This could be explained by the fact that wheat has also been used extensively for livestock feeding. This is explained to a certain degree by the fact that the Common Agricultural Policy made imports of coarse grains from more efficient producers expensive, while promoting at the same time an expansion of wheat production within the EU. Largest importers are Egypt, Brazil, Indonesia, Algeria, and Japan. North Africa and Middle East are the main importers by region.

Coarse Grains are used more heavily as input in production of meat and dairy goods. Therefore, it is more affected by consumer income rather than increase in population. Coarse Grains include: maize (corn), barley, oats, rye and sorghum. The most important ones are Corn, constituting 72% of total production, and Barley (13%).

Corn (Maize) is the most important coarse grain, constituting 72% of total coarse grain production. It is mainly used in animal feed. It is more affected by consumer income since corn is main input for meat production. It is planted in May and harvested in October. It is classified into three categories: yellow (animal feed), white (flour) and mixed (animal feed). Approximately half of world production and three fourth of world exports are from US, mainly from Corn Belt. If adverse weather condition hits this area, international market is severely affected. Other main exporters are Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.

Top consumers are USA, China, EU, Brazil and Mexico. Top importers are Japan, South Korea, Mexico and EU. USA is not only largest producer but also largest consumer in the market. Approximately 20% of total US corn production is used for ethanol production. In recent years, growing demand from biofuel industry due to increasing use of corn in ethanol production has changed the market significantly. Grain market is now more linked to energy market. Corn and wheat prices have always been highly correlated. Corn price historically has been cheaper than wheat. Today, corn price is around $275 per metric ton, while wheat price is around $290 per metric ton.

Soybean is officially classified as a legume. However, it is usually classified with other grains due to being an important substitute for coarse grains. Soybean has more than 150 different varieties; the yellow soybean is the most commercial one. Soybean usually traded in original form, but most of them are usually processed to soybean- meal or oil.

Over 50% of soybean productions are internationally traded. Planted at the same time as corn in the US, and produced in the same corn-belt area, so it competes with corn for the arable land. It is extensively grown in US, around 40% of world production and followed by Brazil (25%), Argentina and China. Over 50% of world production is exported. USA, Brazil and Argentina make up 80% of whole export.

It is primarily used as animal feed (particularly for cattle, pigs and poultry) and also used for human consumption after being processed into soybean oil. Top consumers are China, USA, Brazil, EU and Argentina. China is by far the largest importer, absorbing over 30% of world import. China is followed by EU, Mexico and Japan.

Rice contains complex carbohydrate which is necessity for human and also contains one of the highest quality proteins. Mostly used for human consumption, which is staple food for two third of world population. Asia accounts for 90% of the world production and consumption. Top producers and consumers are same: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam. Since top producers keep most of their production for domestic consumption, relatively small portion of rice enters world trade. Top exporters are Thailand, Vietnam, USA and Pakistan. Top importers are Philippines, UAE, Iran, Malaysia, and Senegal.

Demand for rice is affected by income level, population growth and changes in prices relative to substitute crops. Demand for rice is expected to grow together with higher income levels and population growth in coming years.

softs部分等下次再发

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